2.4. Guideline 4: Mergers Can Violate the Law When They Eliminate a Potential Entrant in a Concentrated Market

Mergers can substantially lessen competition by eliminating a potential entrant. For instance, a merger can eliminate the possibility that entry or expansion by one or both firms would have resulted in new or increased competition in the market in the future. A merger can also eliminate current competitive pressure exerted on other market participants by the mere perception that one of the firms might enter. Both of these risks can be present simultaneously.

A merger that eliminates a potential entrant into a concentrated market can substantially lessen competition or tend to create a monopoly. [Endnote 21] The more concentrated the market, the greater the magnitude of harm to competition from any lost potential entry and the greater the tendency to create a monopoly. Accordingly, for mergers involving one or more potential entrants, the higher the market concentration, the lower the probability of entry that gives rise to concern.

2.4.A. Actual Potential Competition: Eliminating Reasonably Probable Future Entry

In general, expansion into a concentrated market via internal growth rather than via acquisition benefits competition. [Endnote 22] Merging a current and a potential market participant eliminates the possibility that the potential entrant would have entered on its own—entry that, had it occurred, would have provided a new source of competition in a concentrated market.

To determine whether an acquisition that eliminates a potential entrant into a concentrated market may substantially lessen competition, [Endnote 23] the Agencies examine (1) whether one or both [Endnote 24] of the merging firms had a reasonable probability of entering the relevant market other than through an anticompetitive merger, and (2) whether such entry offered a substantial likelihood of ultimately producing deconcentration of the market or other significant procompetitive effects. [Endnote 25]

Reasonable Probability of Entry

The Agencies’ starting point for assessment of a reasonable probability of entry is objective evidence regarding the firm’s available feasible means of entry, including its capabilities and incentives. Relevant objective evidence can include, for example, evidence that the firm has sufficient size and resources to enter; evidence of any advantages that would make the firm well-situated to enter; evidence that the firm has successfully expanded into similarly situated markets in the past or already participates in adjacent or related markets; evidence that the firm has an incentive to enter; or evidence that industry participants recognize the company as a potential entrant.

This analysis is not limited to whether the company could enter with its pre-merger production facilities, but also considers overall capability, which can include the ability to expand or add to its capabilities on its own or in collaboration with someone other than the acquisition target.

Subjective evidence that the company considered entering absent the merger can also indicate a reasonable probability that the company would have entered without the merger. Subjective evidence that the company considered organic entry as an alternative to merging generally suggests that, absent the merger, entry would be reasonably probable.

Likelihood of Deconcentration or Other Significant Procompetitive Effects

New entry can yield a variety of procompetitive effects, including increased output or investment, higher wages or improved working conditions, greater innovation, higher quality, and lower prices. If the merging firm had a reasonable probability of entering a highly concentrated relevant market, this suggests benefits that would have resulted from its entry would be competitively significant, unless there is substantial direct evidence that the competitive effect would be de minimis. To supplement the suggestion that new entry yields procompetitive effects, the Agencies will consider projections of the potential entrant’s competitive significance, such as market share, its business strategy, the anticipated response of competitors, or customer preferences or interest.

A merger of two potential entrants can also result in a substantial lessening of competition. The merger need not involve a firm that has a commercialized product in the market or an existing presence in the same geographic market. The Agencies analyze similarly mergers between two potential entrants and those involving a current market participant and a potential entrant.

2.4.B. Perceived Potential Competition: Lessening of Current Competitive Pressure

A perceived potential entrant can stimulate competition among incumbents. That pressure can prompt current market participants to make investments, expand output, raise wages, increase product quality, lower product prices, or take other procompetitive actions. The acquisition of a firm that is perceived by market participants as a potential entrant can substantially lessen competition by eliminating or relieving competitive pressure.

To assess whether the acquisition of a perceived potential entrant may substantially lessen competition, the Agencies consider whether a current market participant could reasonably consider one of the merging companies to be a potential entrant and whether that potential entrant has a likely influence on existing competition. [Endnote 26]

Market Participant Could Reasonably Consider a Firm to Be a Potential Entrant

The starting point for this analysis is evidence regarding the company’s capability of entering or applying competitive pressure. Objective evidence is highly probative and includes evidence of feasible means of entry or communications by the company indicating plans to expand or reallocate resources in a way that could increase competition in the relevant market. Objective evidence can be sufficient to find that the firm is a potential entrant; it need not be accompanied by any subjective evidence of current market participants’ internal perceptions or direct evidence of strategic reactions to the potential entrant. If such evidence is available, it can weigh in favor of finding that a current market participant could reasonably consider the firm to be a potential entrant.

Likely Influence on Existing Rivals

Direct evidence that the firm’s presence or behavior has affected or is affecting current market participants’ strategic decisions is not necessary but can establish a showing of a likely influence. Even without such direct evidence, circumstantial evidence that the firm’s presence or behavior had an effect on the competitive reactions of firms in the market may also show likely influence. Objective evidence establishing that a current market participant could reasonably consider one of the merging firms to be a potential entrant can also establish that the firm has a likely influence on existing market participants. Subjective evidence indicating that current market participants—including, for example, customers, suppliers, or distributors—internally perceive the merging firm to be a potential entrant can also establish a likely influence.

2.4.C. Distinguishing Potential Entry from Entry as Rebuttal

When evaluating a potentially unlawful merger of current competitors, the Agencies will assess whether entry by other firms would be timely, likely, and sufficient to replace the lost competition using the standards discussed in Section 3.2. The existence of a perceived or actual potential entrant may not meet that standard when considering a merger between firms that already participate in the relevant market. The competitive impact of perceived and actual potential entrants is typically attenuated compared to competition between two current market participants. However, because concentrated markets often lack robust competition, the loss of even an attenuated source of competition such as a potential entrant may substantially lessen competition in such markets. Moreover, because the Agencies seek to prevent threats to competition in their incipiency, the likelihood of potential entry that could establish that a merger’s effect “may be” to substantially lessen competition will generally not equal the likelihood of entry that would rebut a demonstrated risk that competition may be substantially lessened.

[Endnote 21] United States v. Marine Bancorp., 418 U.S. 602, 630 (1974). A concentrated market is one with an HHI greater than 1,000 (See Guideline 1, n.15).

[Endnote 22] See Ford Motor Co. v. United States, 405 U.S. 562, 587 (1972) (referring to the “typical[]” competitive concern when “a potential entrant enters an oligopolistic market by acquisition rather than internal expansion” as being “that such a move has deprived the market of the pro-competitive effect of an increase in the number of competitors”).

[Endnote 23] Harm from the elimination of a potential entrant can occur in markets that do not yet consist of commercial products, even if the market concentration of the future market cannot be measured using traditional means. Where there are few equivalent potential entrants, including one or both of the merging firms, that indicates that the future market, once commercialized, will be concentrated. The Agencies will consider other potential entrants’ capabilities and incentives in comparison to the merging potential entrant to assess equivalence.

[Endnote 24] United States v. Penn-Olin Chemical Co., 378 U.S. 158 (1964) (holding that a merger between two firms, each or both of which might have entered the relevant market, could violate Section 7).

[Endnote 25] See id. at 175-76; Marine Bancorp., 418 U.S. at 622, 633 (“[T]he proscription expressed in § 7 against mergers ‘when a “tendency” toward monopoly or [a] “reasonable likelihood” of a substantial lessening of competition in the relevant market is shown’ applies alike to actual- and potential-competition cases.” (quoting Penn-Olin, 378 U.S. at 171)); see also Yamaha Motor Co. v. FTC, 657 F.2d 971, 980-981 (8th Cir. 1981) (acquisition of potential entrant violated Section 7).

[Endnote 26] See United States v. Falstaff Brewing Corp., 410 U.S. 526, 533-36 (1973); Marine Bancorp., 418 U.S. at 624-25.