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National Drug Intelligence Center National Drug Threat Assessment 2006 January 2006 HeroinStrategic Findings
OverviewHeroin is generally available in drug markets throughout the nation, but the drug is most prevalent in the Northeast Region. Distribution--of Mexican heroin (black tar and brown powder) in western states and white heroin (predominantly South American) in eastern states--typically occurs in urban areas but also, to a limited extent, in suburban and rural areas. Worldwide white heroin production reportedly decreased in nearly every source country since 2000 except Afghanistan, where production has increased sharply. However, relatively little heroin produced in Afghanistan is distributed in the United States because of high demand for the drug in Asia and Europe and, further, because Colombian and Dominican criminal groups, who distribute South American heroin, control most white heroin distribution in U.S. drug markets. Current supplies of white heroin appear to be meeting demand in the United States; however, further declines in white heroin production, particularly in Colombia, may result in decreased heroin availability. Distribution may recede in many smaller communities and rural areas, particularly in the Northeast Region, where heroin distribution emerged in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Significant and prolonged shortages in South American heroin most likely would not result in an increase in distribution of Mexican heroin in eastern states because Mexico heroin production capacity appears insufficient to meet total U.S. demand and because users of white heroin have strongly resisted using black tar heroin. Instead, shortages in South American heroin availability would most likely result in an increase in Southwest Asian (Afghanistan) heroin distribution in U.S. drug markets; however, such distribution would very likely be controlled by Colombian and Dominican criminal groups who would purchase Southwest Asian heroin from sources in Asia or Europe.AvailabilityThere are no conclusive estimates regarding the quantity of heroin available in the United States; however, nearly all national-level studies indicate limited heroin availability that appears to be decreasing in most areas of the country. In fact, federal heroin seizures, DEA heroin-related arrests, and wholesale heroin purity all have decreased sharply since 2001 (see Appendix B, Table 3, Table 4, and Table 6). NDTS data appear to reflect this trend, as the percentage of state and local law enforcement agencies reporting high availability of heroin in their area decreased from 2004 to 2005, albeit only slightly, for the first time since the inception of the survey in 2001. purity indicators must decline before significant decreases in availability would be widely apparent in domestic drug markets. Nevertheless, continued decreases--similar to those reported since 2001--could result in declines in availability in many smaller cities and rural areas in the near term, particularly in northeastern drug markets, where heroin distribution emerged in the late 1990s and early 2000s.ProductionAccording to intelligence estimates, heroin production has decreased significantly in most source areas, particularly in Southeast Asia and South America. In fact, worldwide heroin production outside Afghanistan decreased approximately 60 percent (126 mt to 50 mt) from 2001 through 2004. Conversely, heroin production in Afghanistan increased sharply following the defeat of the Taliban, from 2001 (7 mt) to 2004 (582 mt) (see Table 8). Because of the apparent sharp decline in heroin production in most source areas and a sharp increase in heroin production in Afghanistan, more than 92 percent (582 mt of 632 mt) of estimated worldwide heroin production in 2004 occurred in Afghanistan.Despite significant decreases in heroin production in most source countries other than Afghanistan, production in South America and Mexico--the main source countries for the United States--remains sufficient to meet most U.S. demand for the drug in the near term. Further sustained declines in South American white heroin production, however, may gradually stretch domestic heroin supplies in eastern markets; any heroin deficit is not likely to be filled by Mexican heroin and will most likely result in an increase in Southwest Asian white heroin trafficking in the United States. Any significant substitution of Southwest Asian heroin for South American heroin most likely would take several years to occur because Colombian and Dominican criminal groups control most white heroin drug markets, and as such, there are relatively few established Southwest Asian heroin transportation and distribution networks in the United States. Moreover, Colombian and Dominican criminal groups quite likely would strive to maintain control over domestic heroin distribution by purchasing Southwest Asian heroin from sources in Asia or Europe and distributing it in eastern drug markets.
TransportationHeroin POE seizure data suggest that most Mexican heroin is transported into the United States via couriers traveling in private and commercial vehicles, while most South American heroin is transported into the country by couriers on commercial flights. Although heroin seizure data do not suggest any significant changes in the routes or methods for Mexican heroin transportation, there appears to have been a significant shift in South American heroin transportation. South American heroin couriers flew primarily from Colombia to both New York and Miami from the early 1990s through 2002; however, 2003 and 2004 data suggest that South American heroin seizures in Miami have greatly exceeded those in New York--an indication that Miami is now the principal POE for South American heroin (see Table 9). Moreover, as South American heroin is increasingly transported into the United States via Miami, heroin transportation from Florida to the Northeast Region via Interstates 95 and 75 is likely to increase significantly in the near term. Nevertheless, couriers on commercial flights remain the primary method used for transporting the drug into the country, rather than via private or commercial vehicle across the U.S.-Mexico border. In fact, POE seizure data for 2003 and 2004 show significant heroin smuggling through land POEs (see Table 10). However, only 11 relatively small seizures (averaging less than 3 kg per seizure) of South American heroin occurred at U.S.-Mexico border POEs in 2004, indicating either very limited smuggling of the drug via Southwest Border POEs or an ability on the part of traffickers to evade law enforcement detection (see Table 11).
Southeast Asian heroin and Southwest Asian heroin typically are transported into the United States via couriers on commercial flights, and POE seizure data do not indicate any shift toward smuggling the drugs via land conveyances. Nevertheless, some West African smugglers of Southwest Asian heroin may be modifying their smuggling routes to the United States. West African criminal groups that smuggle Southwest Asian heroin into the United States typically purchase heroin from wholesale sources located in Europe, particularly England. However, recent law enforcement reporting indicates that some West African criminal groups have traveled to Afghanistan to purchase Southwest Asian heroin--sometimes in relatively large quantities--from wholesale sources and have transported it directly to the United States. DistributionHeroin distribution appears to be relatively limited--occurring primarily in metropolitan areas--and heroin distribution in the eastern half of the country, particularly the Northeast Region, appears to be more widespread than in the western half. For example, drug seizure data suggest that there is only one significant heroin distribution center--St. Louis--in the 11 states that compose the West Central Region. Moreover, 434 extensive interviews were conducted by NDIC representatives from November 2004 through May 2005 with federal, state, and local law enforcement officials nationwide. Although not a statistically representative sample of law enforcement agencies, 25 of the 33 officials who indicated heroin distribution was widespread in their areas were located in the eastern half of the country, including 22 officials in the Northeast Region.The expansion of heroin distribution into smaller communities and rural areas observed during the late 1990s and early 2000s occurred primarily in the eastern half of the country, particularly in the Northeast Region, where South American heroin dominates retail heroin markets. That expansion has slowed and may stabilize in the near term. According to heroin supply indicators, South American heroin production and availability may now be declining, and less South American heroin appears to be flowing directly from South America to the Northeast Region than in previous years. Continued declines in South American heroin production and downward trends in availability indicators, combined with decreased transportation of the drug from Colombia directly to the region, may stabilize distribution, particularly in smaller communities and rural areas of the Northeast Region. Principal distribution centers for heroin, unlike those for other major drugs of abuse, are not concentrated in states that border Mexico (see Appendix A, Map 6). Heroin distribution centers are more dispersed because nearly all white heroin is smuggled into the country by couriers on commercial flights rather than by couriers crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. Wholesale heroin distribution in these and other drug markets often is controlled by Mexican (in western states) and Colombian and Dominican (in eastern states) criminal groups; however, midlevel and retail distribution is largely controlled by street gangs. In fact, street gangs appear to have greater control over retail heroin distribution than they have over distribution of most other drugs because heroin distribution occurs primarily in metropolitan areas--where gangs generally control most retail drug distribution--and is very limited in most rural areas--where independent dealers control a greater proportion of retail distribution. DemandDespite a perception within the counterdrug community that heroin use has increased since the early 2000s, overall rates of use for heroin have, in fact, remained relatively low and stable. Neither NSDUH nor MTF data show significant changes for the rates of past year heroin use since 2002, and both studies show that the rates of past year use for heroin are much lower than those for other major drugs of abuse, including cocaine, marijuana, and methamphetamine (see Appendix B, Table 1 and Table 2). Although heroin use is relatively stable and low, TEDS data indicate a sharp increase in heroin treatment admissions to publicly funded treatment facilities (see Appendix C, Chart 1), largely because of an increase in access to heroin treatment programs, including treatment programs accessible via drug courts, since the early 1990s.Rates of past year use for heroin are not likely to increase in the near term and may, in fact, decrease. The current high and stable perception of risk associated with heroin use--higher than that for any other major drug of abuse--is likely to impede any potential increase in use of the drug. |
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