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National Drug Intelligence Center National Drug Threat Assessment 2006 January 2006 MarijuanaStrategic Findings
OverviewMarijuana availability in the United States remains high, fueled by high--and possibly increasing--marijuana production at domestic grow sites as well as increasing production in Mexico and Canada. Nevertheless, demand for marijuana appears to be decreasing, at least among casual users. Current high marijuana availability and decreasing demand for the drug may result in lower prices in the near term as marijuana traffickers attempt to entice current users to increase their consumption or nonusers to try the drug. Mexican criminal groups control most wholesale marijuana distribution throughout the country. Asian criminal groups, however, are expanding their position relative to wholesale distribution of high potency marijuana in every region of the country. In fact, increasing distribution of high potency marijuana by Asian criminal groups as well as expansion of domestic high potency marijuana production appears to be significantly raising the average potency of marijuana in U.S. drug markets, elevating the threat posed by the drug.AvailabilityMost national-level data and law enforcement reporting indicate that marijuana availability is high and stable or increasing slightly. For example, federal seizures and arrests for marijuana have fluctuated somewhat but have remained within a consistent range since 2001. Moreover, law enforcement reporting reveals high and stable marijuana availability in drug markets throughout the country as evidenced by NDTS 2005 data that show the percentage of state and local agencies reporting marijuana availability in their area as either high or moderate--approximately 98 percent--has not changed significantly since 2003. Despite these data, which appear to show stable availability, some anecdotal law enforcement reporting combined with an apparent rise in marijuana production at domestic, Mexico, and Canada grow sites appears to indicate slightly increasing domestic availability of the drug in 2005. Although reported marijuana price ranges have not noticeably changed, slightly increasing marijuana availability in domestic drug markets coupled with decreasing demand for the drug will most likely result in decreasing prices in the near term, as marijuana traffickers attempt to expand their customer base.Even as the overall availability of marijuana appears to be stable or slightly increasing, rising average marijuana potency is further increasing the threat posed by the drug and may contribute to continued increases in availability. Average marijuana potency has increased steadily and significantly since the mid-1990s, and in fact, average marijuana potency of seized marijuana has nearly doubled since 1994 (see Figure 1) because producers have developed improved strains of marijuana through more effective cultivation techniques. University of Mississippi Potency Monitoring Project data indicate that higher potency marijuana accounts for an increasing percentage of seized and tested marijuana samples. For example, of all tested samples, the percentage determined to be higher potency marijuana--delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) content of at least 5.0%--increased significantly from 1989 (15.8%) through 2005 (60.0%). Rising marijuana potency is not considered a strong singular indication of increasing availability of the drug; however, increasing potency allows for increased mixing of higher potency marijuana with commercial-grade marijuana during midlevel and retail-level distribution, potentially increasing the quantity distributed in domestic drug markets. Moreover, rising marijuana potency increases risks to users, particularly inexperienced or casual users, who may experience a stronger intoxication than would be experienced using lower potency marijuana. Figure
1. Average percentage of THC in samples of seized marijuana,
1985-2005
ProductionOverall marijuana production in Mexico--the principal source of foreign-produced marijuana to U.S. drug markets--Canada, and the United States appears to be increasing. Mexico marijuana production estimates indicate that production in Mexico was relatively low from 2000 through 2002 during a period of drought, increased sharply in 2003 as weather improved, and receded slightly in 2004 (see Table 5). Moreover, anecdotal reporting and cannabis eradication and marijuana seizure data all indicate that marijuana production in Canada has recently increased, perhaps significantly. Domestic marijuana production also appears to be increasing, according to law enforcement reporting that reveals a significant increase in eradication of domestic marijuana grow sites in 2005. Domestic Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program (DCE/SP) data indicate that domestic cannabis eradication--occurring primarily in California, Kentucky, Tennessee, Hawaii, and Washington, often on public lands including Forest Service lands (see Figure 2)--increased steadily from 2000 through 2003, decreased in 2004, and increased sharply to its highest recorded level in 2005. (See Table 6.)
Figure 2. Top 10
National Forests for eradication of cannabis on Forest Service lands in
2004.
TransportationMost of the foreign-produced marijuana available in the United States is smuggled into the country from Mexico via the U.S.-Mexico border by Mexican DTOs and criminal groups; however, a sharp rise in marijuana smuggling from Canada via the U.S.-Canada border by Asian criminal groups has increased the domestic availability of marijuana produced in Canada. Arrival Zone seizure data indicate that most (96.7% in 2004) marijuana seized at or between U.S. POEs is seized along the U.S.-Mexico border from private further indicate that marijuana seizures along the U.S.-Canada border--typically, seizures of high potency marijuana--have nearly tripled since 2001, although they are still much lower than seizures along the U.S.-Mexico border--and that the number of seizure incidents reached its highest recorded level in 2004, notwithstanding a decrease in the total amount seized in 2004 (see Table 7). This trend is likely to continue, particularly if a greater number of domestic users are introduced to higher potency marijuana.
DistributionMexican criminal groups control most wholesale marijuana distribution throughout the United States; however, Asian criminal groups appear to be increasing their position as wholesale distributors of Canada-produced marijuana. According to law enforcement reporting, Mexican DTOs and criminal groups control most wholesale marijuana distribution in the Great Lakes, Pacific, Southeast, Southwest, and West Central Regions and control much of the wholesale marijuana distribution in the Northeast Region. Although Asian criminal groups are not the predominant wholesale marijuana distributors in any region, these groups, particularly Chinese and Vietnamese groups, now are widely identified in law enforcement reporting as the principal suppliers of high potency, Canada-produced marijuana throughout the country.The influence of Asian criminal groups in high potency marijuana distribution is likely to increase in the near term. Law enforcement reporting indicates that these groups are increasingly gaining control over much of the high potency marijuana production and distribution in Canada and now appear to be extending their influence in the United States. In fact, law enforcement reporting indicates that the influence of Asian organizations in drug trafficking--particularly the trafficking of high potency marijuana--in the United States is now more significant than that of Russian-Israeli, Jamaican, or Puerto Rican criminal groups (see Appendix A, Map 3). Marijuana distribution is widespread throughout the country, as evidenced by the presence of 14 principal distribution centers for the drug, one or more of which are located in nearly every region of the country (see Appendix A, Map 6). Much of the midlevel and retail distribution of marijuana in these and other cities is controlled by African American, Asian, and Hispanic street gangs; however, independent dealers control most midlevel and retail marijuana distribution in smaller communities and rural areas. In fact, independent dealers are likely to retain control of distribution in smaller communities because they often distribute locally produced marijuana rather than foreign-produced marijuana. DemandBoth MTF and NSDUH data show that rates of past year use for marijuana have remained stable or decreased overall for nearly every sampled age group. For example, NSDUH data show declining rates of past year use among younger adults (aged 18 to 25) and stable use among older adults (aged 26 and older) (see Appendix B, Table 1). Both MTF and NSDUH also show declining levels of adolescent marijuana use. MTF data, for example, show decreasing rates of past year use among eighth, tenth, and twelfth graders since 2000, a trend supported by NSDUH data that show decreasing rates of past year use among adolescents (aged 12 to 17) since 2002 (see Appendix B, Table 1 and Table 2). Although marijuana use has declined, TEDS data show that the number of treatment admissions to publicly funded treatment facilities for marijuana has increased since the early to mid-1990s, most likely because of increased access to drug treatment and increases in treatment referrals from drug courts (see Appendix C, Chart 1).Demand for marijuana is likely to decrease overall in the near term. Declining rates of use among adolescents most likely will result in a decline in overall use as these adolescents progress to adulthood and join the predominant user age group (aged 18 to 25). Moreover, greatly increased treatment for marijuana use--a 66 percent (171,344 to 284,532) increase in the number of treatment admissions to publicly funded treatment facilities for marijuana since 1995--will most likely result in a greater number of users who succeed in stopping use of the drug, further reducing overall rates of use. End Note3. These groups are composed
primarily of ethnic Asian Canadian citizens. |
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