Outlook

South American heroin will continue to pose a significant drug threat to Pennsylvania and two of its largest cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Treatment and mortality data indicate that heroin abuse is a serious problem, and there are no indications that abuse levels will decrease in the near future. Colombian and Dominican DTOs and criminal groups, as well as African American, Mexican, and Puerto Rican criminal groups, will continue to dominate South American heroin transportation and wholesale-level distribution in Pennsylvania. Various ethnic criminal groups, local independent dealers and abusers, as well as street gangs and, to a lesser extent, OMGs will continue to distribute heroin at the retail level in the state.

Cocaine will remain a significant drug threat to Pennsylvania due to high levels of abuse and ready availability of the drug. The level of violence associated with cocaine distribution and abuse, particularly crack, will contribute to the magnitude of the threat. Colombian and Dominican DTOs and criminal groups and African American, Mexican, and Puerto Rican criminal groups will remain the principal transporters of cocaine into Pennsylvania. Colombian and Dominican DTOs and criminal groups and African American, Mexican, and Puerto Rican criminal groups will remain the primary wholesale-level cocaine distributors in Pennsylvania. Dominican DTOs and criminal groups, as well as African American, Caucasian, Colombian, and Puerto Rican criminal groups; local independent dealers; street gangs; and OMGs will remain the primary wholesale-level distributors of crack cocaine in Pennsylvania. African American, Caucasian, and Hispanic criminal groups; local independent dealers; street gangs; and OMGs will remain the principal retail-level distributors of both powdered and crack cocaine in Pennsylvania.

Marijuana will remain the most readily available and commonly abused illicit drug in Pennsylvania. Marijuana produced in Mexico will remain the most prevalent type available; however, significant quantities of marijuana produced locally and in other states as well as marijuana produced in Canada and Jamaica will be available. Jamaican and Mexican criminal groups will remain the principal transporters and wholesale-level distributors of marijuana in Pennsylvania due to their established sources of supply and distribution networks. African American, Caucasian, Jamaican, and Puerto Rican criminal groups; local independent dealers; street gangs; and OMGs will remain the principal retail-level marijuana distributors in the state.

Diverted pharmaceuticals will continue to pose a serious drug threat to Pennsylvania. Treatment data indicate that pharmaceutical abuse, particularly opiate abuse, is a serious problem, and there are no indications that abuse levels will decrease in the near term. Over the long term, the threat posed may decrease as successful law enforcement reduces the availability of diverted pharmaceuticals.

The availability and abuse of methamphetamine most likely will spread from northwestern Pennsylvania to the central and southwestern portions of the state. Locally produced methamphetamine will remain the most prevalent type available. Caucasian local independent dealers and criminal groups and OMGs will remain the primary producers, transporters, and distributors of methamphetamine in Pennsylvania.

The drug threat posed by other dangerous drugs such as MDMA and GHB and its analogs will continue to pose a serious drug threat to Pennsylvania. However, the threat posed by these drugs will be less than the threat posed by heroin, cocaine, marijuana, diverted pharmaceuticals, and methamphetamine.

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