Outlook

Texas will continue to serve as a major destination and transshipment point for illicit drugs. Mexican DTOs will remain the greatest threat along the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas. These organizations will continue to use the region to transport and distribute large amounts of methamphetamine, cocaine, heroin, and marijuana destined for markets in Texas and the rest of the United States. Increasing trade between the United States and Mexico will contribute to the increasing volume of cross-border traffic, providing drug smugglers with more opportunities to smuggle illicit drugs into the country. Law enforcement interdiction efforts and increased security along the Southwest Border may force DTOs to adjust drug smuggling methods and transportation routes. As a result of these adjustments, violent confrontations between DTOs and an overall increase in violence along the Southwest Border can be expected.

The production, distribution, and abuse of methamphetamine are not likely to decrease in the near future. The methamphetamine trade in Texas has the potential to expand, allowing various criminal groups the opportunity to enter the market. Mexican DTOs and criminal groups likely will increase the amount of methamphetamine they smuggle into Texas, as demand for the drug grows. Crystal methamphetamine will become available in more areas throughout the state, particularly in midsize and smaller cities. In-state production also will continue as independent methamphetamine dealers expand their distribution throughout Texas. If domestic methamphetamine production continues to expand at current levels, this will have an increasingly negative impact on the environment, public health, and state budgetary resource allocations.

Cocaine will remain a principal drug threat to Texas. Mexican DTOs and criminal groups have historically used the state to transport multiton shipments of cocaine into and through Texas to drug markets throughout the country, and there are no indications that this trend will change.

Heroin will continue to attract new users, particularly adolescents, because of its ready availability, high purity, and relatively low cost. Due to the influence of Mexican DTOs, black tar heroin will remain the predominant type available in the state.

Marijuana will remain the most commonly available and widely abused drug in Texas. Marijuana produced in Mexico will remain the predominant type available; however, the availability of locally produced marijuana may increase if demand rises. Barring any major changes in drug flow patterns, Texas will continue to serve as the primary gateway for smuggling marijuana from Mexico into the United States.

The abuse of ODDs such as MDMA, GHB and its analogs, ketamine, LSD, Rohypnol, and PCP is likely to increase, particularly among teenagers and young adults. Adverse consequences from abuse of these drugs are likely to increase as new users experiment with them and combine them with other drugs or alcohol. As abuse of club drugs becomes more common in the urban areas of Texas, abuse of these drugs also will spread to the less populated areas of the state. Mexican DTOs may become involved in the distribution of club drugs if demand increases.

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