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Outlook

A shift in smuggling routes appears to be steering some methamphetamine smuggling activity towards South Texas from areas of Arizona and California. Fighting and violence occurring in Tijuana, Baja California, and elsewhere throughout northern Mexico will likely redirect some methamphetamine shipments through Nuevo León and Tamaulipas, states that have experienced a reduction in drug-related violence during the past year. Such a development would most likely increase the flow of methamphetamine through the South Texas HIDTA region and could result in an upward trend in methamphetamine seizure amounts in the near term.

South Texas-based prison gangs and street gangs will most likely increase their involvement in drug trafficking, thereby intensifying the threat that they pose to the South Texas HIDTA region. Recent law enforcement reporting indicates that ties among these gangs and Mexican DTOs are strengthening and that gang members are becoming more involved in Mexican DTO activities, including acting as enforcers, in the South Texas border area. This poses a direct threat to the South Texas HIDTA, because gangs may gain greater access to DTO-controlled firearms caches along the border in order to carry out their duties. Moreover, the gangs may use these weapons against rival gangs or law enforcement officers in South Texas.


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