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National Drug Intelligence Center |
Cocaine trafficking is the leading drug threat to the United States. However, counterdrug agencies have made measurable progress against cocaine production, transportation, and distribution, contributing to a reduction in cocaine availability in the United States. Cocaine availability decreased in many areas during the first half of 2007 and remained below 2005 and 2006 levels in many drug markets through mid-2008. Coca eradication, large cocaine seizures, increased pressure on DTOs in Mexico, intercartel violence, expanded cocaine markets in Europe, and border security have contributed to sustained decreases in cocaine availability in some areas of the United States. Also, effective counterdrug operations have caused traffickers to shift cocaine transportation routes.
Analysis of law enforcement reporting as well as national drug threat, availability, demand, and treatment data indicates that cocaine trafficking is the greatest drug threat to the United States. National law enforcement and drug use surveys show that the adverse impact to the nation's communities, families, and individuals caused by the distribution and abuse of powder and crack cocaine exceeds that caused by all other drugs. National Drug Intelligence Center (NDIC) National Drug Threat Survey (NDTS) data for 2008 show that 41 percent of state and local law enforcement agencies in the United States identify powder cocaine or crack as the greatest drug threat in their area, a higher percentage than for any other drug. NDTS data also show that state and local law enforcement agencies identify powder cocaine or crack as the drug most contributing to violent and property crimes in their areas, 50 percent and 39 percent, respectively, higher than for any other drug. The agencies ranked cocaine higher than any other drug in nearly every drug threat category.
Other national drug data support the NDTS 2008 results. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) arrest data for 2007 through June 2008 show that cocaine-related arrests accounted for 42 percent (17,688 of 41,822 arrests) of all DEA arrests and exceeded arrests for any other drug (see Table B1 in Appendix B). Further, Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Force (OCDETF) data for 2007 show more OCDETF cases initiated against cocaine trafficking groups than against groups distributing any other drug. Data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) show that the percentage of persons aged 12 or older who used cocaine in the past year decreased from 2.5 percent in 2006 to 2.3 percent in 2007; however, the rate of past year use for cocaine remained higher than for all other illicit drugs except marijuana. Because cocaine is very addictive, particularly in crack form, the high levels of cocaine abuse led to nearly 250,000 admissions to publicly funded facilities for treatment of cocaine addiction in 2006, the most recent year for which data are available. More treatment admissions in 2006 were related to cocaine abuse and addiction than for any other illicit drug except marijuana.
Worldwide cocaine production declined slightly in 2007, primarily because of successful coca eradication in Colombia. U.S. Government estimates show that worldwide cocaine production declined 8 percent (930 to 865 MT) between 2006 and 2007. In Colombia, where cocaine production constituted at least 55 percent of annual worldwide cocaine production from 2003 through 2007, estimated potential pure cocaine production decreased from 550 metric tons in 2006 to 535 metric tons in 2007 (see Table 1). U.S. Government crop estimates showed a statistically insignificant increase in the amount of land under cultivation in Colombia for coca, but potential cocaine production decreased largely because successful coca eradication programs reduced coca leaf yields. In Peru, potential pure cocaine production declined 21 percent between 2006 and 2007 (265 to 210 MT). The decline in cocaine production in Peru, the world's second-largest cocaine-producing country, is attributed primarily to an increase in forced and voluntary eradication. In Bolivia, potential pure cocaine production increased in 2007 for the first time since 2004, from 115 metric tons in 2006 to 120 metric tons in 2007. Despite the increase, cocaine production in Bolivia accounted for only 12 percent of worldwide cocaine production in 2007. According to intelligence reporting, Bolivian cocaine was destined primarily for Brazil and Europe.
Table 1. Estimated Andean Region Coca Cultivation and Potential Pure Cocaine Production 2003-2007
| Net Cultivation (hectares) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |
| Bolivia | 23,200 | 24,600 | 26,500 | 25,800 | 29,500 |
| Colombia | 113,850 | 114,100 | 144,000 | 157,200 | 167,000 |
| Peru | 29,250 | 27,500 | 34,000 | 42,000 | 36,000 |
| Total | 166,300 | 166,200 | 204,500 | 225,000 | 232,500 |
| Potential Pure Cocaine Production (metric tons) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |
| Bolivia | 100 | 115 | 115 | 115 | 120 |
| Colombia | 445 | 415 | 525 | 550 | 535 |
| Peru | 245 | 230 | 250 | 265 | 210 |
| Total | 790 | 760 | 890 | 930 | 865 |
Source: Crime and Narcotics Center.
The estimated amount of cocaine that departed South America toward the United States in 2007 was only slightly higher than the revised 2006 estimate; however, several exceptionally large seizures of cocaine in transit removed a significant amount of cocaine from the supply chain in short periods of time. According to the Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement (IACM), between 545 and 707 metric tons of cocaine departed South America toward the United States in 2007, an amount slightly higher than the revised 2006 estimates (509 to 709 MT). Approximately 90 percent of detected cocaine shipments were transiting through the Mexico-Central America (MX-CA) Corridor (see Figure 1). Consolidated Counterdrug Database (CCDB) data show that traffickers moving cocaine shipments through the MX-CA Corridor favored routes through the Eastern Pacific Vector. Nearly 69 percent of documented cocaine shipments moving toward the United States in 2007 moved through the Eastern Pacific Vector (see Figure 1). Noncommercial maritime vessels, such as go-fast and fishing boats, are the principal conveyances used by traffickers to move cocaine shipments through the Eastern Pacific. Go-fast boats and private aircraft are the most common cocaine transport methods used by traffickers in the Western Caribbean Vector. Traffickers also are increasingly using privately built Self-Propelled Semisubmersible-Low Profile Vessels (SPSS-LPV) to transport cocaine through the MX-CA Corridor, particularly in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 1. Vectors in the Transit Zone--CCDB-Documented Cocaine Flow Departing South America, January-December 2007
Percentages based on all confirmed, substantiated, and higher-confidence
suspect events in the Consolidated Counterdrug Database (CCDB). Arrows represent
general movement corridors.
Source: Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement.
The amount of cocaine seized or disrupted2 in the U.S. Transit Zone3 increased slightly in 2007, and several large seizures during the spring and fall removed a large amount of cocaine from the traffickers' supply chain in relatively short time frames. According to the IACM, the amount of cocaine moving toward the United States that was seized or disrupted by counterdrug forces increased from 203 metric tons in 2006 to 209 metric tons in 2007, but remained lower than in 2005 (234 MT). During 2007, however, counterdrug forces made five of the 20 largest individual cocaine seizures recorded (see Table B2 in Appendix B). Two of the seizures (10.4 MT and 15.2 MT) occurred in March in the Eastern Pacific. In early April, law enforcement seized 13.2 metric tons of cocaine in Colombia. Counterdrug forces in Mexico seized two large shipments of cocaine (11.7 MT and 23.6 MT) between September and November. The 23.6-metric-ton seizure in November 2007 was the largest cocaine seizure ever recorded. The number of exceptionally large cocaine seizures in 2007 was unusual compared with seizures in previous years; for example, the largest cocaine seizure in 2006 totaled only 9 metric tons. In 2005 only one exceptionally large cocaine shipment (15 MT) was seized. Most likely, the 2007 seizures significantly reduced the amount of cocaine available to DTOs for distribution in the United States, contributing to acute shortages of the drug in several drug markets.
Cocaine seizure data indicate that cocaine smuggling through South Texas decreased from 2007 through mid-2008 and increased in California, most likely because of difficulty on the part of DTOs in moving cocaine through Mexico to the South Texas border. National Seizure System (NSS) data reveal a significant decrease in the amount of cocaine seized at or between Southwest Border ports of entry (POEs) in 2007, particularly between the first and second quarters, and continuing through mid-2008 (see Figure 2). The decreased seizure total stemmed from a sharp decline in the amount of cocaine seized at or between Texas POEs, especially in South Texas. During this period, cocaine seizures at or between POEs in the other Southwest Border states were relatively stable or increased. Because cocaine seizures at Texas POEs account for such a large percentage of cocaine seized along the Southwest Border, the decline at Texas POEs resulted in a significant overall decline in Southwest Border cocaine seizures by mid-2008. By mid-2008, the quarterly seizure total was the lowest since prior to 2004. The cocaine seized at or between Southwest Border POEs decreased 47 percent from the fourth quarter of 2005 (3,363 kg) to the second quarter of 2008 (1,785 kg).
Figure 2. Southwest Border Cocaine Seizures At or Between POEs, by Quarter, in Kilograms, 2004-2008*
Source: National Seizure System.
*
Data run September 15, 2008.
As cocaine seizure totals along the South Texas border declined, cocaine seizure totals at or between POEs in California increased (see Figure 2). For example, the average quarterly amount of cocaine seized at or between POEs in California increased from 478 kilograms in 2004 to 883 kilograms in 2007. By the second quarter of 2007, when cocaine seizure totals at Texas POEs decreased sharply, cocaine seizure totals at or between California POEs exceeded seizure totals in Texas for the first time since prior to 2004.
After the second quarter of 2007, cocaine seizures at and between Texas POEs rebounded slightly in the next three quarters, according to NSS data, but they remained below nearly every quarterly total between 2004 and 2006. In the second quarter of 2008, the amount of cocaine seized at and between POEs in Texas declined significantly to 556 kilograms, the lowest amount seized since prior to 2004. During 2007 through mid-2008, quarterly cocaine seizure totals in California remained high. Authorities seized more cocaine at and between California POEs during the first quarter of 2008 than in any previous quarter since prior to 2004.
Law enforcement and intelligence reporting indicates that the decrease in cocaine seizures in Texas likely is due to Mexican DTOs' difficulty in moving cocaine through Mexico to the U.S. Southwest Border. Recent impediments to maintaining a stable flow of cocaine through Mexico most probably include seizures of large cocaine shipments in the transit zone, intensive counterdrug efforts by the Mexican Government, U.S. law enforcement operations along the Southwest Border, and intercartel violence in Mexico.
Cocaine availability in the United States was lower in 2007 and early 2008 than it had been in 2005 and 2006, and prolonged cocaine shortages occurred in many U.S. drug markets. Drug availability data show that domestic cocaine availability decreased in early 2007 and that the decreased availability extended through mid-2008. Beginning in early 2007, law enforcement agencies in several drug markets reported decreased cocaine availability primarily at the wholesale level and, sometimes, for midlevel quantities. Signs of decreased cocaine availability included distributors not receiving their regular supplies, increased prices, and decreased purity. Despite shortages at the wholesale level, cocaine typically remained available at the retail level, in large part because of distributors adding cutting agents to stretch supplies. By August 2007 sustained cocaine shortages were reported in 38 large and midsize domestic drug markets. The availability of cocaine, which began its decrease in early 2007, has returned to 2005 and 2006 levels in some cities, but decreased availability has continued in 14 U.S. drug markets--primarily in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast Regions--through early 2008. (See Map A4 in Appendix A and Table B3 in Appendix B).
Law enforcement reports of decreased cocaine availability are supported by the DEA's System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (STRIDE)4 data about cocaine purity and prices (see Figure 3). According to STRIDE data, the average price per pure gram for cocaine samples submitted to DEA laboratories increased 21 percent ($97.01 to $117.72) from first quarter to second quarter 2007. Similarly, the average purity of cocaine samples decreased 12 percent (66.99 to 58.79 percent pure) from first quarter to second quarter 2007. STRIDE data through June 2008 show that cocaine prices have remained higher and purity has remained lower than in 2005 or 2006.
Figure 3. Cocaine Price and Purity, April 2005-June 2008
Source: Drug Enforcement Administration.
Federal cocaine seizure data also indicate decreased cocaine availability beginning in early 2007. According to Federal-wide Drug Seizure System (FDSS) data, quarterly cocaine seizures by federal agencies have decreased significantly since the first quarter of 2007. FDSS data show that the amount of cocaine seized in the United States by federal agencies decreased sharply during the second quarter of 2007 and declined 41% (15,387 kg to 9,074 kg) between first quarter 2007 and second quarter 2008 (see Figure 4). In fact, quarterly cocaine seizure totals were lower in the second and fourth quarters of 2007 and the first and second quarters of 2008 than in any other quarter during the past 4 years.
Figure 4. Federal Cocaine Seizure Totals, in Kilograms, First Quarter 2003 to Second Quarter 2008
Source: Federal-Wide Drug Seizure System.
Analysis of Quest Diagnostics workplace drug testing data and Drug Abuse Warning Network5 (DAWN Live!) emergency department (ED) admissions data also supports law enforcement reports of decreased cocaine availability beginning in early 2007. According to Quest Diagnostics data, the national rate of positive workplace drug tests for cocaine decreased significantly between first quarter and second quarter 2007 (see Figure 5). Rates of positive cocaine tests continued to decline through first quarter 2008 to the lowest recorded level since first quarter 2000 (the earliest date for which data are available). Analysis of DAWN Live! ED admissions data reveals that in 10 of the 14 cities reporting to DAWN, the proportion of drug-related ED visits that were attributed to cocaine was lower in every quarter between second quarter 2007 and first quarter 2008 than the 2005-2006 quarterly averages for the cities (see Table B4 in Appendix B).
Figure 5. Percent of National Positive Cocaine Test Results, 2005 to Second Quarter 2008
Source: Quest Diagnostics.
The leading cause of the decrease in domestic cocaine availability is unclear. It is unclear what factor most contributed to the decrease in cocaine availability in U.S. drug markets. Intelligence and law enforcement reporting indicates that the decrease likely is the result of several simultaneous factors that obstructed the flow of cocaine from South America through Mexico to U.S. drug markets. The likely factors include several exceptionally large cocaine seizures made while the drug was in transit toward the United States, counterdrug efforts by the Mexican Government, U.S. law enforcement operations along the Southwest Border, a high level of intercartel violence in Mexico, and expanding cocaine markets in Europe and South America.
The extent to which rising demand for cocaine in non-U.S. markets has affected cocaine availability in the United States is unclear. Reporting from foreign public health officials indicates that cocaine use in many non-U.S. markets, especially in Europe, has increased over the past decade and that use continues to rise. Moreover, the declining value of the U.S. dollar provides a financial incentive for drug traffickers to sell cocaine in foreign markets where the wholesale price of cocaine is already much higher than in the United States. However, inconsistent reporting from foreign law enforcement agencies on cocaine seizures and drug movements makes it difficult to reliably assess the amount of cocaine that traffickers are sending to Europe and other non-U.S. markets annually. According to the IACM, the documented amount of cocaine moving to Europe declined between 2006 and 2007, but certain recent trends, such as an increase in Europe-bound cocaine transiting West Africa, imply a strong foreign cocaine market and that the decrease in documented transatlantic movement is a reflection of a lack of awareness of traffickers' changing tactics. As such, a rising demand for cocaine in non-U.S. markets, including South America, suggests that less cocaine is available for transport to the United States.
Sporadic cocaine shortages will continue in several U.S. drug markets through 2008 and into early 2009. According to intelligence reporting, counterdrug efforts against DTOs moving cocaine through the Mexico/Central America Corridor have reduced the ability of traffickers to move regular supplies of cocaine to the United States. The sustained pressure against DTOs in Mexico as well as high cocaine seizure totals from shipments in transit toward the United States continued through mid-2008 and will likely result in supply interruptions and acute wholesale shortages in some U.S. drug markets through early 2009.
Despite declines in cocaine availability and abuse, demand for the drug will likely remain high in the near term. NSDUH data show that rates of past year use for cocaine declined from 2006 to 2007 as availability of the drug declined. However, rates of use remained higher than for any other drug except marijuana. Moreover, NSDUH data show that demand for the drug will most likely remain high, since individuals' perception of risk associated with use of cocaine has declined. Persons aged 18 to 25 by far accounted for the largest percentage of past year and past month cocaine users in 2006 and 2007, according to NSDUH data. Cocaine use by young adults likely will remain high in the near term, since the negative perception of cocaine use has declined among adolescents. Monitoring the Future (MTF) data show that in 2007 only 45 percent of twelfth graders perceived great risk of harm in trying cocaine powder once or twice. Moreover, only 47 percent of the twelfth graders perceived great risk in trying crack cocaine once or twice. MTF data show that twelfth graders' perceptions of the risk in cocaine use trended downward over the past decade. For example, twelfth graders' perception of great risk in using crack regularly declined from a high of nearly 92 percent in 1990 to 83 percent in 2007. NSDUH data also show that only 50 percent of persons aged 12 to 17 perceived great risk in using cocaine once a month, a slight decrease since 2003 (51%). The decrease in perceived risk suggests that adolescents are becoming less wary of trying cocaine, which may sustain demand for the drug in the near term.
2.
A disruption occurs when cocaine is jettisoned and
not recovered or is otherwise destroyed by traffickers.
3.
The U.S. Transit Zone includes Central America, Mexico,
all Caribbean Islands except Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the water
bodies and airspace between South America and the United States.
4.
System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence
(STRIDE) is not a representative sample of drugs available in the United States
but reflects evidence submitted to Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) laboratories
for analysis by federal law enforcement agencies.
5.
Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) collects data from
numerous hospital emergency departments in 13 metropolitan areas as well as from
a nationally representative sample of hospitals. Data are collected on all drug-related
emergency department (ED) visits to measure the effects of substance use, misuse,
and abuse.
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