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The West Texas HIDTA's status as a significant entry point for drugs along the Southwest Border may increase in the long term. Once a dominant cartel is established in the El Paso/Juárez plaza, stability will return to the area, and the flow of drugs most likely will increase. The degree to which this increase will occur depends on the dominant cartels' access to supply and production areas in Mexico as well as the extent to which the cartel's structure has been weakened during the struggle. Moreover, the presence of Mexican military and law enforcement personnel in Juárez will continue to discourage traffickers from moving shipments through the plaza because of the increased risk of seizure. Once Mexican military and law enforcement presence declines in the plaza, drug smuggling will most likely increase or return to previous levels, depending on which organization prevails.
The amount of marijuana and cocaine transported through the HIDTA region may increase once a cartel asserts dominance over the El Paso/Juárez plaza. If the Sinaloa Cartel were to gain more control of the plaza, increased marijuana could flow into the HIDTA region as a result of the cartel's significant access to cannabis cultivation areas in Mexico. Cocaine smuggling into the HIDTA region may also increase as a dominant cartel is established in the plaza and DTOs overcome supply obstacles in Mexico. Additionally, accessibility to international source areas by the DTO that takes control of the plaza will determine cocaine flow.
The HIDTA region will most likely see a decrease in the flow of methamphetamine in the near term as a result of precursor regulations and counterdrug operations in Mexico. Enhanced import and chemical control restrictions will go into effect in 2008 and 2009; these restrictions could further impact production of the drug in Mexico. As new precursor laws come into effect, methamphetamine production may further be hindered in Mexico in the short term until DTOs either find alternative sources for the drug outside Mexico or find ways to circumvent the regulations. Additionally, the Mexican Government most likely will conduct additional counterdrug operations--actions that could lead to increased seizures of the drug.
The disruption of Barrio Azteca's command-and-control structure may hinder the gang's drug trafficking operations in the near term. Recent arrests of several key members of Barrio Azteca have most likely affected the leadership structure in the organization, communication among members, and associations that the gang has with outside organizations, particularly the DTOs operating in the El Paso/Juárez plaza. As a result, the gang's retail drug distribution in El Paso and the drug trafficking activities that it conducts at the behest of cartels operating in the plaza may be impeded. Barrio Azteca's ability to restructure its organizational hierarchy will have the most influential effect on how quickly the gang's trafficking operations can be restored.
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