National Drug Intelligence Center   Midwest High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area Drug Market Analysis 2008   May 2008

Outlook

Ice methamphetamine availability and abuse will remain the most significant drug-related issues facing the Midwest HIDTA in the near term. In addition, increased street gang activity in some HIDTA markets such as Wichita and St. Louis will lead to increased incidents of violent and property crimes. African American and Hispanic street gangs rely on drug revenue, including that generated by crack cocaine and methamphetamine sales, to support their activities and resort to violence in order to protect their operations. This may contribute to levels of violence in the Midwest HIDTA region if gangs increasingly compete for drug territory and market share.

Local methamphetamine production will continue and may increase in some areas of the HIDTA. Unless states in the Midwest HIDTA region create centralized databases to track pseudoephedrine purchases, local methamphetamine producers will continue to purchase pseudoephedrine in quantities less than threshold amounts at several locations throughout the region until they acquire enough to manufacture a supply of methamphetamine. Further, methamphetamine producers will continue to search for alternate means of obtaining sufficient precursor chemicals. Law enforcement agencies in HIDTA areas that have experienced a resurgence of methamphetamine laboratories will have to balance budget expenditures between remediating methamphetamine laboratories and targeting organizations.

The Midwest HIDTA may face an increased trafficking threat from its shared border with Canada if chemical controls enacted by the government of Mexico cause a sustained decrease in Mexican methamphetamine production and a shortfall in the supply of methamphetamine in the HIDTA region. Law enforcement officials in some western drug markets have already noted intermittent methamphetamine shortages as a result of law enforcement pressure and chemical controls in the United States and Mexico. Law enforcement officials also have reported that methamphetamine production in Canada has risen in recent years and that they expect increasing supplies of Canadian methamphetamine to flow into areas of the United States, including some markets in the midwest.

The availability and abuse of high-potency marijuana in the Midwest HIDTA region may increase as Asian traffickers increase their production in Manitoba, particularly the Winnipeg area, and as demand for the drug rises in the area. The Fargo/Grand Forks, Sioux City/Sioux Falls, and Omaha markets will be especially vulnerable to this increase, since I-29 connects with Canada's Manitoba Provincial Highway 75, which passes through Winnipeg. In addition, Asian traffickers from Canada may attempt to increase their market share and control by establishing indoor, high-potency cannabis cultivation operations within the HIDTA region, as they have reportedly done in other regions of the country, such as the Great Lakes and Pacific Regions.

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