Outlook

Mexican DTOs and criminal groups operating in the HIDTA region will become more prominent in national-level drug distribution, expanding their market share and dominance. Their drug trafficking dominance will remain unchallenged in the foreseeable future, primarily because of the proximity of Mexico to California and because Mexican DTOs have well-established distribution networks and transportation infrastructures.

Illicit drug distribution by Mexican DTOs and criminal groups as well as those working with them or on their behalf will likely increase in the Los Angeles HIDTA region in the near term. Moreover, the East Coast expansion of trafficking operations by Mexican DTOs and criminal groups based in or having connections to the Los Angeles HIDTA region will contribute to increased distribution from the HIDTA region to even more drug markets throughout the country. Furthermore, the potential for street gangs to capitalize on this expansion by Mexican DTOs and increase their drug distribution in markets throughout the country will quite likely contribute to rising national-level distribution from the Los Angeles HIDTA region.

The Los Angeles HIDTA region will continue to be one of the few national-level source areas for domestically produced methamphetamine and PCP. Mexican DTOs and criminal groups operating methamphetamine laboratories in the HIDTA region will continue to produce the drug to capitalize on distribution to markets, including those in the eastern United States, where methamphetamine availability and abuse are increasing. As a result, methamphetamine-related environmental costs and safety concerns will continue to increase. PCP production will most likely remain at the current low levels both in and outside the HIDTA region.

The fentanyl seizure that occurred in the Los Angeles HIDTA region at the end of 2006 does not warrant serious law enforcement or health/safety concerns; it does, however, suggest that DTOs are smuggling the drug from Mexico through the HIDTA region. The size of the shipment, together with the well-established Mexican DTO command-and-control cells within the HIDTA region that already serve many of the drug markets affected by the distribution and abuse of fentanyl, indicate a likelihood that fentanyl may emerge as a significant transportation and/or distribution threat within the HIDTA region.

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