Heroin

Strategic Findings

• The availability of Mexican heroin is increasing, albeit slightly, in eastern heroin markets traditionally supplied by South American heroin.
• Mexican DTOs increasingly are transporting and distributing South American heroin in eastern U.S. drug markets, on behalf of Colombian DTOs.
• Continued declines in heroin production in South America could result in increased availability of Mexican and Asian heroin in eastern U.S. heroin markets.
• Although overall heroin demand appears to be stable, increased levels of abuse among young adults have been noted in some areas.

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Overview

Heroin is readily available in most large metropolitan areas and, to varying degrees, in suburban and rural markets throughout the country. Although overall abuse levels for heroin are lower than levels for other drugs, including cocaine and marijuana, the consequences of heroin abuse are far reaching in terms of heroin-related deaths, treatment admissions, and emergency department mentions. Since late 2005, the suspected number of heroin-related overdose deaths involving fentanyl has been indicative of the risks attendant to heroin abuse, including inconsistent purity levels and diluents and adulterants that can cause serious and often fatal consequences. Anecdotal reporting from nearly 500 federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies throughout the country along with data from the NDTS 2006 suggests that the highest levels of heroin availability are concentrated in the northeastern United States, where nearly one-third of those agencies interviewed indicated that heroin availability or demand has increased. With few exceptions, availability in most other domestic heroin markets appears to be stable.

Mexican heroin availability is expanding into eastern drug markets: For the past several years, the heroin market in the United States was generally divided along the Mississippi River. To the west of the Mississippi River, black tar heroin and, to a lesser extent, brown powder heroin from Mexico were the primary types available. To the east of the Mississippi, white powder heroin, primarily from Colombia, but also from Southwest and Southeast Asia, was the primary type of heroin available. While users in both markets historically have been reluctant to switch heroin types, law enforcement reporting indicates that Mexican heroin is now available in more markets east of the Mississippi than traditionally has been the case. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) Domestic Monitor Program (DMP) has identified the availability of Mexican heroin in a number of cities east of the Mississippi River, including Chicago and Detroit. While Mexican heroin has been available to varying degrees in Chicago for years, the availability in the other cities indicates that traffickers of Mexican heroin continue to attempt to expand the user base of Mexican heroin and tap into the large heroin user population in the eastern United States. Historically such attempts have failed; however, while it is unlikely that the availability of Mexican heroin will surpass the availability of South American heroin in the eastern United States, current dynamics of the heroin trade could result in a continued gradual increase in the supply of Mexican heroin to the eastern United States. According to DEA, the purity of South American heroin at the retail level has decreased⁶ over the past several years (although 2005 data may indicate a reversal of this trend), while the purity of Mexican heroin has marginally increased.⁷ Although it is unlikely that white powder heroin users will switch to black tar heroin, it is conceivable that white powder heroin users would use Mexican brown powder heroin if the purity were to approach that of South American heroin. Moreover, if production continues to decline in South America, a potential shortfall of heroin could be filled with not only white powder heroin from Asia but also higher purity brown powder heroin from Mexico.

Declines in South American heroin production could open more markets for Asian and Mexican heroin traffickers: White powder heroin from South America remains the primary type of heroin available in the eastern United States. However, production in other source countries is more than sufficient to sustain demand if there were to be decreased availability of South American heroin. In 2005 Southwest Asia, primarily Afghanistan, was once again the world's leading supplier of heroin (see Table 6). Heroin from that source continues to supply mainly markets in Asia and Europe, although law enforcement and intelligence reporting indicates that at least moderate quantities of Southwest Asian heroin are available in some U.S. drug markets. Estimates for South American heroin production are unavailable for 2005 because adverse weather precluded adequate sampling in opium cultivation areas. However, heroin production estimates declined significantly in South America from 2001 through 2004. If declines continue to levels that would fail to meet demand in the United States, it is likely that at least some of the demand would be met from Southwest Asian sources in addition to Mexican sources, as heroin production in those source areas remains strong and more than sufficient to support U.S. demand.

Table 6. Potential Worldwide Heroin Production, in Metric Tons, 2001-2005

Source: Crime and Narcotics Center.
NA-not applicable
*CNC did not report an estimate for Colombia for 2005.

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Heroin smuggling routes are unchanged, but South American heroin smuggling by Mexican DTOs is increasing: Most heroin available in the United States is transported into the country by two primary routes--commercial air or overland--generally depending on the type of heroin. Mexican heroin typically is transported into the United States overland through and between POEs along the Southwest Border. South American heroin typically is transported into the United States by couriers on commercial air carriers to international airports in the United States; most seizures are made at Miami International Airport and John F. Kennedy International Airport. Mexican DTOs also transport South American heroin overland across the Southwest Border on a much smaller, but increasing, scale on behalf of Colombian DTOs. They use the same routes to transport South American heroin as they use to transport Mexico-produced methamphetamine and heroin, cocaine, and marijuana throughout the country.

Mexican DTOs are expanding their control over wholesale heroin distribution even in white heroin markets: Mexican DTOs dominate the wholesale distribution of Mexican heroin in the western United States, while Colombian and Dominican DTOs are the primary wholesale distributors in the large white powder heroin markets in the eastern United States, including New York, Philadelphia, Newark, and the New England area. Nonetheless, law enforcement reporting indicates that distribution patterns may be shifting, albeit slightly. Mexican DTOs increasingly are transporting and distributing South American heroin in some eastern heroin markets, most notably the New York City area. Moreover, Mexican DTOs may be expanding their distribution of Mexican heroin in eastern markets, which traditionally have been supplied with white powder heroin. As Mexican DTOs exert greater control over drug markets in the eastern United States, the availability of Mexican brown powder heroin and, on a smaller scale, Mexican black tar heroin will increase in markets where availability previously was very limited. Street gangs that often obtain heroin from multiple sources control most retail heroin distribution.

Distributors are attracting customers with free samples sometimes mixed with dangerous substances such as fentanyl: As heroin demand has stabilized in most markets, organizations have increasingly used various techniques to gain market share, including giving away free heroin, using brand names to establish repeat customers, and as evidenced by the increase in heroin-fentanyl incidents that have been reported since late 2005, offering "hot bags" of heroin that are mixed with adulterants that increase potency. Recent law enforcement reporting on groups distributing heroin and fentanyl indicates that some gangs gave away free samples of a heroin and fentanyl mixture, while others marketed to addicts specific "brands" purported to contain fentanyl. (See text box.) Despite the seizure of a laboratory in Mexico that is suspected of being the source of at least some of the fentanyl involved in the recent rash of fentanyl-related overdoses, clandestine fentanyl manufacturers will continue to exploit the market of heroin abusers who continually seek a better high. Moreover, while preliminary reports from law enforcement indicate that most of the heroin/fentanyl seized thus far has contained white powder heroin, it is not unlikely that distributors of Mexican heroin, if they haven't thus far, will adulterate Mexican heroin with fentanyl to obtain a more marketable product.

Prescription narcotic abusers switching to heroin may lead to an increase in heroin demand: Demand for heroin in the United States is largely driven by a well-established population of roughly 800,000 hardcore heroin addicts. Overall, demand is relatively stable, with gradual increases noted in some user populations. The physical need for opiate abusers to obtain opiate-type drugs to stave off withdrawal has led some addicts to switch from prescription drugs to heroin. Anecdotal law enforcement reporting indicates that abusers of pharmaceutical opioids, primarily OxyContin and methadone, but other drugs as well, have switched and continue to switch to heroin, particularly when heroin is more available and cheaper. Anecdotal law enforcement reporting also suggests that, despite NSDUH data that indicates the number of heroin initiates remained significantly unchanged from 2002 through 2004, the number of high school and college age students that are abusing heroin is increasing, particularly in the eastern United States, where many of the abusers began abusing OxyContin before switching to heroin. This trend will most likely continue, as increased law enforcement efforts to curb the diversion and abuse of prescription drugs will make prescription opiates more difficult to obtain.

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Intelligence Gaps

The amount of Asian heroin, particularly Southwest but also Southeast heroin, transported to the United States is relatively unknown. Law enforcement reporting and heroin indicator programs including the Domestic Monitor Program and Heroin Signature Program suggest that South America is, and will remain, the primary type of white powder heroin available in the United States for the near term. However, law enforcement reporting indicates that Southwest Asian heroin and, to a lesser extent, Southeast Asian heroin, are available in several markets throughout the country. Additional intelligence regarding the transportation and subsequent distribution of Asian heroin in U.S. markets is needed to further quantify the availability of Asian heroin in the United States.

Current estimates of heroin production in South America are unknown because adverse weather in 2005 precluded adequate sampling via satellite imagery in opium cultivation areas. Moreover, a significant decrease in production estimates from 2003 to 2004 coupled with several significant seizures of Asian heroin could indicate greater availability of Asian heroin in the United States than was previously believed.

A precise estimate of the amount of heroin needed to meet U.S. demand is unavailable. The number of factors that figure into such an estimate--i.e., the number of hardcore users, the number of casual users, the number of times an abuser uses per day, the number of days an abuser uses per month--is such that a variation in any or all of the factors results in a wide-ranging estimate.

End Notes

6. Factors that may have contributed to the decrease in South American heroin purity through 2004 include enhanced law enforcement efforts, increased market competition pressure, geographical expansion of the market area, and deliberate attempts to increase profit margin by increasing total weight with additional diluents.
7. The moderate increase in the purity of Mexican heroin most likely is an attempt by Mexican traffickers to maximize their sales potential by improving the product quality to become more competitive.

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