Cocaine

Strategic Findings

• Cocaine production estimates for 2005 are significantly higher because of newly discovered coca fields in Colombia.
• South Texas remains the leading entry area for cocaine smuggled into the United States.
• Mexican DTOs have developed Atlanta as a staging area for direct wholesale cocaine distribution to East Coast drug markets.

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Overview

Despite the fact that the highest recorded level of cocaine interdiction and seizure was recorded in 2005--the fifth consecutive record-setting increase--there have been no sustained cocaine shortages or indications of stretched supplies in domestic drug markets. These seemingly inconsistent trends suggest greater source country supply than was previously estimated, an assertion supported by a recent upwardly revised cocaine production estimate for 2005. The movement of cocaine shipments from South America toward the United States, primarily via Mexico, has not abated or noticeably shifted to new routes or conveyance methods despite smugglers' sharply rising losses. Indeed, cocaine trafficking organizations have thus far succeeded in maintaining sufficient cocaine production and subsequent conveyance, primarily to Mexican DTOs who control most domestic wholesale transportation and distribution--a dominance slowly extending eastward.

Colombia coca eradication has forced farmers into nontraditional coca growing areas: Sustained and intense coca eradication in Colombia--the source of an estimated 70 percent of the world's cocaine supply--has diminished coca cultivation in traditional growing areas since Colombian cultivation peaked in 2001. In 2005, however, an 81 percent increase in the landmass surveyed by the U.S. government revealed that some coca growers have adapted to eradication efforts by moving out of traditional growing areas and establishing fields in areas not known for large-scale coca cultivation. In the areas surveyed during 2004, coca cultivation declined from 114,100 hectares in 2004 to 105,400 hectares in 2005. But countrywide, cultivation increased because an additional 39,000 hectares of coca was discovered outside the previously surveyed areas. As a result of the discovery of these new coca fields, the estimated amount of pure cocaine that could have been produced in the Andean region increased from 640 metric tons in 2004 to 780 metric tons in 2005 (see Table 1). Since these discoveries, a review of previous yearly coca cultivation and cocaine production estimates has commenced; this review may result in previous annual cocaine production estimates being revised upward.

Table 1. Estimated Andean Region Coca Cultivation
and Potential Pure Cocaine Production, 2001-2005

Source: Crime and Narcotics Center.

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Coca cultivation in Bolivia and Peru has the potential to increase significantly and to replace some of the decreased cultivation in Colombia: Cocaine production in Bolivia and Peru is at a much lower level than in Colombia. However, illegal coca cultivation has increased to its highest level in 5 years. Moreover, cultivation in these countries could substantially increase, since both countries possess the potential to cultivate much more coca as was demonstrated in 1995, when the countries were estimated to have cultivated 163,900² hectares of coca (99,400 hectares more than was cultivated in 2005). Although increased coca cultivation in Bolivia and Peru would not be sufficient to sustain supplies if cultivation in Colombia were significantly diminished, increasing cultivation in Bolivia and Peru would certainly delay any observable shortages in cocaine supplies in U.S. drug markets.

Record-level cocaine seizures have not forced a shift in cocaine transit routes to the United States or the principal methods of transport: The amount of cocaine lost or seized in transit toward the United States increased for the fifth straight year in 2005 (see Table 2) to the highest level ever recorded. Most of these seizures occurred in the Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific Vectors, usually while en route to Mexico. In fact, approximately 90 percent of the documented cocaine flow events destined for the United States transited the Mexico-Central America corridor (see Map 5 in Appendix A). Although this percentage may be somewhat inflated because of underreporting in other regions, where there are fewer U.S. counterdrug assets or actionable intelligence, the Mexico-Central America corridor is, nevertheless, the predominant transit route for cocaine destined for the United States. The predominance of this transit route has not diminished and, in fact, has increased over the past 7 years despite consistently increasing seizures of cocaine shipments in this corridor. Moreover, the primary modes of conveyance--go-fast boats and fishing vessels--have not changed even as interdictions, arrests of smugglers, and vessel seizures continue to climb. Nevertheless, some smaller shifts have occurred over the past 3 years (extending Eastern Pacific transportation routes farther offshore, using more decoy vessels, and decreasing use of Colombia-flagged smuggling vessels, instead utilizing vessels from less cooperative countries) in response to law enforcement pressure.

Table 2. Cocaine Lost or Seized in Transit Toward the United States, in Metric Tons, 2000-2005

Source: Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement.

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Cocaine smuggling into the United States via East Coast, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands POEs has declined to low levels as smuggling via the U.S.-Mexico border, particularly in South Texas, remains very high: Drug seizure data suggest that the practice of smuggling cocaine shipments directly to East Coast POEs or through Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands has decreased since 2000, now accounting for less than 26 percent of all cocaine seizures in the arrival zone (see Table 3). During that same period, cocaine seizures at the Southwest Border have fluctuated but have usually remained within a consistent range, now accounting for 74 percent of cocaine seizures in the arrival zone. Seizure data further suggests that within the Southwest Border area during the 7-month period from October 2005 through April 2006 more cocaine was seized in the South Texas Sector (11,157 kg) than in the Southern California Sector (3,871 kg), Arizona Sector (3,465 kg), or West Texas Sector (793 kg). Seizures made at the Laredo, Hidalgo, and Progresso POEs accounted for over 70 percent of the cocaine seized in the South Texas Sector.

Table 3. Cocaine Seizures in the U.S. Arrival Zone, in Metric Tons, 2000-2005

Source: Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement.

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Mexican DTOs continue to expand their dominance over wholesale cocaine distribution eastward, using Atlanta as a primary distribution hub for East Coast distribution: Over the past several years, Mexican DTOs have developed cocaine distribution hubs in eastern states to extend their control over wholesale cocaine distributors in East Coast drug markets, slowly supplanting Colombian and Dominican DTOs. Atlanta is the leading cocaine staging and distribution hub developed by Mexican DTOs for cocaine distribution in East Coast drug markets, including those in Florida and New York. Mexican DTOs are also establishing a strong presence in eastern cities such as Cleveland and Columbus (OH) for significant regional distribution. Despite the encroachment of Mexican DTOs, Colombian and Dominican DTOs remain the primary wholesale distributors of cocaine in many large East Coast drug markets, including Boston, Miami, New York City, and Philadelphia, but their control is diminishing. Some Colombian and Dominican organizations in these cities increasingly are employing Mexican DTOs to smuggle cocaine into the United States on their behalf, but they also continue to transport cocaine through the Caribbean, including to Puerto Rico, for subsequent transport to the East Coast.

Cocaine demand is stable: Indicators of domestic cocaine demand show that the demand for cocaine in the United States is relatively stable. According to National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data, past year cocaine use (in any form) by individuals 12 and older has not increased or decreased significantly since 2002. NSDUH and Monitoring the Future (MTF) data indicate that past year cocaine use among adolescents has also remained stable during this same period.

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Intelligence Gaps

Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement (IACM) estimates of the percentage of cocaine moving toward the United States through the Eastern and Central Caribbean most likely are lower than the actual percentage of the total flow (see Map 5 in Appendix A). The number of drug events recorded by the Consolidated Cocaine Database (CCDB)--the basis of IACM flow estimates--is underreported in those areas because there are fewer U.S. counterdrug assets available in the region to provide such reports. The extent of the underreporting currently is undeterminable.

End Note

2. Methodologies for estimating coca cultivation have changed since 1995, and using current methodologies would quite likely result in a somewhat higher or lower estimate than that derived in 1995. Nevertheless, there is no question that the amount of coca cultivated in Bolivia and Peru in the mid-1990s greatly exceeds estimates for 2005..

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