In 2001, heroin and cocaine should remain the most serious drug threats in Massachusetts because of their highly addictive nature and strong association with violent crime. The state's drug markets are currently supersaturated with both heroin and cocaine, indicating the presence of a substantial number of chronic users of each drug, so demand for both drugs should remain very strong. Heroin's popularity, in particular, is likely to continue, and could rise even further, due in large part to its extremely low price and high purity. A glassine bag (user dose) of heroin now sells for as little as $4, and heroin use no longer carries the injection stigma because high purity allows for smoking and snorting.⁴² Criminal trafficking organizations with connections to regional, national, and international drug networks are likely to continue supplying the Massachusetts markets with wholesale quantities of heroin and cocaine, relying on sophisticated methods of operation and security to evade law enforcement. The proximity of Massachusetts to the regional drug distribution centers of New York City, Providence, and Hartford will continue to ensure ready access to heroin and cocaine suppliers.

The marijuana threat in Massachusetts should remain lower than that posed by heroin and cocaine during 2001 because marijuana's detrimental effects on users and society are less pronounced. However, marijuana availability and use are believed to be widespread in the state, and the market for this drug should remain strong given its appeal to certain user groups and the high profits generated by marijuana sales. Established trafficking groups are likely to continue to dominate the marijuana trade in Massachusetts, supplying the market with mostly Mexican-grown marijuana and relying on transportation methods and routes successful in the past. Marijuana's popularity should continue to be spurred by the attitude held by many persons that experimenting with drugs is acceptable.

In 2001, the MDMA threat in Massachusetts is likely to increase slowly in established and new markets as availability grows, as new users discover the drug, and as users learn how to avoid overdoses and other risks associated with use. MDMA production, trafficking, distribution, and use in Massachusetts and worldwide have risen sharply since early 1999, and use of MDMA is said to be increasing in social venues other than rave parties and nightclubs. MDMA production, transportation, distribution, and financing operations are difficult for law enforcement to target. Most production is in the Netherlands and Belgium where precursor chemicals are obtained more easily; shipments are commonly made by express mail, air cargo, and courier, methods that allow traffickers to easily conceal small packages of MDMA tablets and capsules; distribution usually occurs at rave parties and dance clubs that are difficult to shut down; and the flow of money back to Europe is easily hidden. In addition, law enforcement believes that organizations with established transportation and distribution networks that distribute drugs other than MDMA, including Colombian, Mexican, and Chinese ethnic criminal organizations, might begin selling MDMA, motivated by the market's high profits.

The MDMA problem could expand to new markets in the state. In 1999, law enforcement authorities in all counties with more than 500,000 people, with the exception of Bristol County, reported MDMA as a problem. Conversely, authorities in counties with fewer than 500,000 people did not report MDMA as a problem with the exception of those in the "Cape and Islands" area. However, federal reporting indicates MDMA use was increasing in the less populous counties in 2000. There are several midsize cities in these smaller counties, including Springfield, New Bedford, and Fall River, that trafficking organizations or distribution groups could view as potential markets. The Springfield area has 10 colleges and universities, which could make the area particularly attractive to organizations or groups seeking to expand their operations. MDMA is easily marketable to new users because the drug is said to duplicate the euphoric effects of amphetamines almost identically, its side effects are perceived to be manageable, and it need not be injected. The potential introduction of MDMA into new markets should be a predictive warning to law enforcement, prosecutors, and treatment professionals in areas of the state currently not witnessing an MDMA problem.⁴³

In 2001, methamphetamine production, transportation, distribution, and use are not expected to present a serious threat to Massachusetts because Mexican criminal organizations are not likely to penetrate a market dominated by other ethnic trafficking organizations, and established organizations are not likely to venture into the methamphetamine trade. No state in New England reports a methamphetamine problem, and although a limited amount of methamphetamine has been sold to drug users for years in Massachusetts, the market for the drug has never taken off. Wholesale distribution of heroin and cocaine in Massachusetts is dominated by Colombian and Dominican DTOs, and wholesale distribution of marijuana by Jamaican and Caucasian criminal organizations. Mexican DTOs, which dominated the production, transportation, and wholesale distribution of methamphetamine in the U.S. West and Midwest throughout the 1990s, are not considered a threat in Massachusetts at the present time. Continued insignificance of methamphetamine should allow decisionmakers to focus on more threatening drugs in Massachusetts. However, a growing presence or influence of Mexican DTOs in the state should serve as an indicator and warning that methamphetamine production, transportation, distribution, or use could soon rise.⁴⁴

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End Notes

42. The perception that high-purity heroin need not be injected has boosted the drug's popularity. However, treatment providers point out that long-term users commonly progress from smoking and snorting to injection because a smaller amount of injected heroin is needed to supply the same high.
43. MDMA use is expected to rise slowly rather than sharply in the coming year. Several supply-side factors probably will moderate growth of the MDMA market in Massachusetts, including the limited number of organizations currently known to be involved in producing, transporting, and distributing MDMA; the need for new organizations to build infrastructure to support operations, which can take time; the potential for distributors to expand to new markets outside Massachusetts, rather than within the state; the controls placed on the production and transportation of MDMA precursor chemicals by the U.S. Government and other governments; and the potential for law enforcement to find new ways to combat the MDMA problem. Several demand-side factors likely will moderate growth of the MDMA market in the state as well, including the eventual saturation of current MDMA markets; the need for established and new organizations to create demand in new markets, which can take time; and the effect of demand reduction efforts that inform users and potential users about the harms of MDMA use.
44. This discussion of the low threat posed by methamphetamine assumes that: (1) Mexican traffickers do not currently have methamphetamine production, transportation, or distribution networks or infrastructure in Massachusetts that has gone undetected by law enforcement; (2) Mexican involvement in the Massachusetts drug trade will not expand beyond the marijuana market, in which they currently operate as major suppliers of Mexican-grown marijuana to Massachusetts-bound transporters and to wholesalers in the state; and (3) methamphetamine would compete with other drugs for use in Massachusetts, particularly among users of other stimulants, and established ethnic criminal organizations in the state would resist competition in the markets they now dominate. 

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